• Stock trading courses and applications to shape you into a more 'informed' and confident trader.

      Perfect for all levels of experience.

      Discover the power of trading with responsible leverage through our options courses and applications.

      Perfect for intermediate or advanced traders.

      Receive tailored, one-to-one coaching and guidance from a professional trading mentor.

      Perfect for all levels of experience.

      Supercharge your stocks or options trading journey at one of our live events.

      Perfect for all levels of experience.

  • Blog

OVI Market Update 21 July 2010

Hi Everyone  

A Head & Shoulders or a Reverse Head & Shoulders … That is the question! 

Some quite constructive patterns were being formed in the markets but remember, bearish markets can have powerful rallies, which then peter out! 

Earnings season is upon us and results have been mixed.  As such I’d expect the market to keep churning away and if I had to pick a direction, I’d pick south. 

Now, here’s the dilemma facing traders who can’t sit still: are we seeing head & shoulders patterns (bearish) or reverse head & shoulders patterns (bullish)?

For me, all I’m concerned about is breakouts from clear areas of support and resistance. But let’s look the overall picture and see what sense we can make of it all. 

S&P (SPY) OVI Chart (Tuesday)
OVI still negative on the S&P even after Tuesday big move up.  Wednesday retreat after the Fed announcement is no surprise and the OVI will be more negative after today’s action (our OVI charts update a few hours after the close). 
spy 2010.07.20.jpg

Nasdaq (QQQQ) OVI Chart (Tuesday):

OVI will be lower today from what you see here.  The QQQQ OVI has been the most prescient in recent months, but just because it’s positive here, doesn’t mean it’s time to start on a buying spree! 
qqqq 2010.07.20.jpg

Remember, there always has to be a breakout/flag pattern with clear support and resistance as well.  Looking at this chart I see a head & shoulders within a larger head & shoulders … that doesn’t bode well for the Nasdaq.  

The nearest upside breakout point is just above $46, however to clear this bigger picture head & shoulders we’ll need to clear $48. 

Dow (DIA) OVI Chart (Tuesday):

Even the often-bullish Dow OVI couldn’t get above zero on Tuesday and will be lower when today’s data has been calculated.  
dia 2010.07.20.jpg

GS OVI Chart (Tuesday)

GS broke nicely from the $140 resistance (OVI became positive the week before!) and is now getting a bit choppy, making it more challenging to trade. 
gs 2010.07.20.jpg

AAPL Chart (Wednesday)

Earnings was initially well received, resulting in a nice gap up, but the stock finished almost on its lows for the day, almost filling the entire gap. Sign of a tired market. 
aapl 2010.07.20.jpg

Ok, that’s it for today … I’ve been saying for a while that my view is this market hasn’t yet seen its lows … That’s still my view.  The last couple of months have seen some great trading opportunities with the markets behaving in a technical fashion to the downside.  This recent rally will, I believe give us some more room to trade to the downside.  But as ever, we’ll only trade what we see, ok?! 

All the best 

Guy 

To learn more and have access to the OVI visit my Private Traders Club area.  

Private Traders Club

PS. If you’re interested in any of our OVI trading services for stocks or options such as a fast-track mentorship or workshop event, book yourself an appointment here to speak with us. Many of our members aren’t aware of all the services we offer to help you become a more ‘informed’ and confident trader with the OVI. Remember, everyone is an individual, and we ensure that we can cater to you and your particular needs.

Follow Us On

Related Posts

WHAT'S YOUR TRADER PERSONALITY?

Take our 30 second quiz to discover your trader personality and find out what trading style suits you best!